Japan’s new prime minister faces her biggest test yet: Meeting Trump

Tokyo — 

Months before she became Japan’s prime min­is­ter, Sanae Takaichisaid she’d been invit­ed to meet US Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump

It was Novem­ber, just after his elec­tion vic­to­ry and sev­er­al fig­ures close to Trump had urged her to vis­it Wash­ing­ton, she post­ed on her offi­cial X account.

But she declined, insist­ing then-Prime Min­is­ter Shigeru Ishi­ba should be the first Japan­ese law­mak­er to meet the new US leader.

How­ev­er, I aim to work hard toward hold­ing a posi­tion that would allow me to meet him in a dig­ni­fied man­ner some­day,” she wrote.

That “some­day” has arrived.

Takaichi’s first major test on the glob­al stage comes as she heads to the ASEAN sum­mit in Malaysia and the APEC meet­ing in South Korea, trips that will reveal how much of her trade­mark con­ser­v­a­tive rhetoric she brings into office. But the most close­ly watched moment will come between those sum­mits, when Trump vis­its Tokyo to meet Emper­or Naruhi­to and sits down with Takaichi for the first time on Tues­day

Aboard Air Force One on his way to Asia, Trump spoke high­ly of Takaichi

The pair spoke on the phone Sat­ur­day, in what Trump called a “very good” phone call. “She great, beau­ti­ful … She’s very friend­ly,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One fol­low­ing the call.

For Japan’s new leader, the stakes are high. Though the US-Japan alliance is one of the world’s strongest, Takaichi’s lim­it­ed diplo­mat­ic expe­ri­ence and Trump’s unpre­dictabil­i­ty make their first meet­ing a crit­i­cal test.

Their talks are expect­ed to cov­er tar­iffs, region­al secu­ri­ty and Japan’s defense spend­ing, all points of ten­sion in recent months. With­in Japan’s con­ser­v­a­tive rul­ing par­ty, some wor­ry Washington’s com­mit­ment to the Indo-Pacif­ic is fad­ing, as it demands more from allies

At home, Takaichi faces her own chal­lenges. Her Lib­er­al Demo­c­ra­t­ic Par­ty is still recov­er­ing from cor­rup­tion scan­dals, and her per­for­mance abroad could shape both her polit­i­cal future and her party’s recov­ery. Her approval rat­ing sits at a strong 71%, a num­ber her team will be keen to pre­serve.

Possible bumps in the road

Defense will top the agen­da.

Under for­mer Prime Min­is­ter Fumio Kishi­da, Japan pledged to raise defense spend­ing to 2% of GDP by 2027. Takaichi now wants to accel­er­ate that time­line to March 2026, call­ing for Japan to “proac­tive­ly advance the fun­da­men­tal strength­en­ing of its defense capa­bil­i­ties” at her first address in Japan’s par­lia­ment. But how the buildup will be financed remains unclear. With the yen weak­en­ing and Takaichi push­ing tax cuts, she may strug­gle to fund her ambi­tions.

Trade could prove equal­ly thorny. Since return­ing to office, Trump has reignit­ed his tar­iff wars, tar­get­ing even long­time allies. After months of talks, tar­iffs on Japan­ese goods dropped from 25% to 15%, while Tokyo agreed to invest $550 bil­lion in US indus­tries. But many details remain vague, and Takaichi is expect­ed to seek more clar­i­ty.

“It seems there are var­i­ous con­cerns, but I love Kore­an nori sea­weed. I also use Kore­an cos­met­ics and watch Kore­an dra­mas,” she said. Main­tain­ing pos­i­tive ties with South Korea’s Pres­i­dent Lee Jae Myung would con­tin­ue the lat­tice-like for­eign pol­i­cy encour­aged by Wash­ing­ton, one that favors mul­ti­lat­er­al coop­er­a­tion among like-mind­ed nations over bilat­er­al depen­dence.

“There’s a grow­ing under­stand­ing that Japan-South Korea coop­er­a­tion is a neces­si­ty in this uncer­tain world,” Nishimu­ra said. “If these two US allies deep­en their defense ties, it helps reduce America’s bur­den in the region.”

Takaichi’s tough­est bal­anc­ing act may be Chi­na.

“Japan is walk­ing a tightrope between the US and Chi­na,” said Mis­ako Iwamo­to, a Mie Uni­ver­si­ty emer­i­tus pro­fes­sor, who spe­cial­izes in pol­i­tics and women’s stud­ies.

Chi­na remains Japan’s largest trad­ing part­ner. Past lead­ers, such as Yukio Hatoya­ma in 2009, leaned clos­er to Bei­jing, spark­ing push­back from Wash­ing­ton

But unlike Hatoya­ma, Takaichi is seen as firm­ly right-wing,” Iwamo­to said. “If she man­ages to improve ties with Chi­na in a way that doesn’t appear anti-Amer­i­can, it might not cause too much fric­tion.”

Both Trump and Takaichi take a hawk­ish stance on Bei­jing, par­tic­u­lar­ly over Tai­wan. Ear­li­er this year, Takaichi vis­it­ed the island and called for “coop­er­a­tion with Tai­wan to joint­ly address defense chal­lenges.” Bei­jing con­demned the trip as a “dan­ger­ous provo­ca­tion,” warn­ing that Japan was “at a cross­roads” under her lead­er­ship

Even before her elec­tion, ten­sions were ris­ing between the two neigh­bors. Chi­nese ves­sels have stepped up activ­i­ty around the dis­put­ed Senkaku Islands – known as the Diaoyus in Chi­na – while Japan’s 2022 defense paper offi­cial­ly labeled Chi­na its “great­est secu­ri­ty threat” for the first time.

At her first press con­fer­ence as prime min­is­ter, Takaichi vowed to take US-Japan rela­tions to “new heights,” call­ing the alliance “the cor­ner­stone of Japan’s for­eign and secu­ri­ty pol­i­cy.” She end­ed her speech with a point­ed line: “There is no time to stand still.”